I am interested in an LLM in Tax at NYU. My problem is that I attend a tier 4 law school. Though I am first in my class, have externed with the IRS, and have some work experience at a large-for-mid-market firm (i.e. 200 attorneys), I fear I have no shot in getting into NYU.

Anyone with insight/experience that could give me a realistic assessment of my chances?

i think you have a really good chance of getting in. i have heard the rule of thumb for getting in from a t4 school is the top 5-10% so if you're first in your class, i'd say you are in good shape. the IRS experience should help as well.

I think you'll be fine. I have friends at NYU Tax now and they said there are students from all four tiers. I know of a couple tier 4 people who got into GW as well.

#1 in your class is a huge achievement. One of my favorite professors was #1 in his class at a lower tier school and got into Yale for his LLM.

any general idea how long it takes to come to a decision on a particular file?