What are the chances for a UOL external LLB holder of getting into Oxford BCL/MJur or Cambridge/Harvard LLM, if any? Would he need to get not only first class but rank top of the world? I look at the class graduates lists of Oxford MJur/BCL and practically no one came from an external law program, even though some came from 400th ranking universities.

What are the chances for a UOL external LLB holder of getting into Oxford BCL/MJur or Cambridge/Harvard LLM, if any? Would he need to get not only first class but rank top of the world? I look at the class graduates lists of Oxford MJur/BCL and practically no one came from an external law program, even though some came from 400th ranking universities.

I wouldn't worry too much about the stats of University of London external/distance learning admission rates for the Oxford BCL, Cambridge LLM, or Harvard LLM. The simple reason for this is because there just aren't enough stats to make any meaningful inferences.

According to the below FOI request, not a single person in the University of London distance learning programme made an application for the Oxford BCL/MJur/MLF between 2013-23:
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/admission_data_for_mjur_bcl_and#outgoing-1427589

Obviously, if no one is applying, then no one is going to get an offer from Oxford. So don't worry about the BCL yearbook too much.

As you have already pointed out, there are definitely people in the Oxford BCL/MJur programme who went to internationally low-ranking universities. The same will undoubtedly be the same for the Cambridge LLM programme. 

In a similar rein to being in a comparatively low ranked university, going to an external or distance learning university will not be a death knell to your application. 9 people from the Open University (a distance learning university) between 2013-23 applied to the Oxford BCL/MJur/MFL and 3 of them were given offers. If those people can do it, you can do it too!

I'm not going to pretend that all things are rosy for you though. It is undeniable that the status of the university you come from plays a role. People who went to Oxford and Cambridge for their undergraduate studies have statistically higher chances of getting admitted to their respective master's programmes. Those who come from Russell Group universities like LSE will also have a greater chance of being admitted. You can see the stats confirming the same in the above FOI.

You're not going to have to rank the "top of the world", but realistically you're going to have to rank as either the top or 2nd top student in your entire law cohort to have a chance. If you look at a bunch of threads in LLM Guide, you will see quite a few people who come from ex-poly universities who got offers from Cambridge and/or Oxford. Almost always, they would have either ranked as the top or 2nd top student with academic awards to boot too. In a sea of applicants from the top universities, ranking extremely high and/or getting academic awards is the only realistic way you have to make your application stand out for the Oxford BCL/MJur and Cambridge LLM programmes.

It's entirely do-able. Good luck!